Superstorm: Background This is your global warning

09 April, 2007 by The_Boss

For governments around the globe, weather is becoming a pressing issue. For centuries, controlling the Earth's climate has been one of mankind's greatest endeavours. To some, it's a fantasy; but, to many, it's rapidly becoming a necessity. Shanghai, New York, Tokyo – all are at the mercy of Mother Nature and vulnerable to catastrophic storms. But what if fantasy became reality? What if the weather could be artificially modified? Who would try and what would happen?

In Superstorm – a three-part drama from the team behind Supervolcano – Sara Hughes (Nicola Stephenson), George Katzenberg (Tom Sizemore) and Dan Abrams (Chris Potter) head up Stormshield, a team of scientists who have been asked to attempt the impossible: to control the weather and harness the power of hurricanes.

Set in the near future, in which global warming has led to ever-more ferocious hurricanes, the drama follows Stormshield as they develop techniques to alter the course and intensity of the huge storms that threaten America's East Coast. These are the brightest minds around and their goal is to prevent disasters such as Hurricane Katrina happening again. This is Project Stormfury, mark two.

After a period of successful research, the team are asked to put their ideas into practice and try to divert a hurricane that is threatening Miami. It's theoretically possible, but their actions could cause flooding in the poorer States of the USA as well as a host of other unpredictable and unthinkable eventualities. When an unexpected weather system appears, the moral dilemma splits the team and they decide to abort the experiment. Where do you divert hurricanes to? Who decides who lives, who dies? Stormshield has become a political as well as a scientific beast.

Stormshield is no more, or so the team thinks. However, it soon becomes clear that their research has been acted upon and their data has been used. But a critical error has been made that has brought about some terrifying consequences. The hurricane will be deflected away from Miami, but it is now heading for New York City. It has gained power, it is now more deadly than before: it is a Category 5 hurricane, the most powerful there is – a Superstorm.

Can the team stop the monster they've unwittingly helped to create and save New York City?

Packed full of action, breathtaking CGI, intrigue and a twist with every turn, Superstorm is as compelling as it is nightmarish. This is not science fiction: it's science prediction.

Superstorm's cast includes Hollywood regular Tom Sizemore (Natural Born Killers, Black Hawk Down, Saving Private Ryan), Nicola Stephenson (Brookside, City Lights, The Chase), Chris Potter (Law And Order, Sex Traffic), JR Bourne (24, Stargate SG-1) and newcomer and Piefinger vocalist Jana Carpenter.

The Science Of Superstorms
Accompanying the BBC One drama is a documentary series on BBC Two. The Science Of Superstorms highlights some of the futuristic weather modification research that Superstorm is based upon. This ranges from cloud seeding, currently the only proven form of weather control, to distant perturbation, the brain child of the world's foremost hurricane expert, Professor Kerry Emmanuel at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

In addition to looking at the future, The Science Of Superstorms explores how weather modification has been used in the past: from Project Stormfury, the first attempt to divert hurricanes over half-a-century ago, to the use of weather seeding during the Vietnam War, to the experiments being conducted by governments around the world today.

Because of global warming, the pressure has never been greater to come up with viable means of modifying the weather in order to reduce the impact of extreme conditions.

The key players


Sara Hughes (Nicola Stephenson – Brookside, City Lights, The Chase, Holby City)
Sara is English, but grew up in the USA. She is a cloud-seeding and weather modification expert. Prior to her involvement with Stormshield, she made her living as a field scientist, flying into hurricanes to take measurements to further the understanding of how hurricanes work. Her grandfather was involved with Project Stormfury in the Sixties. Sara is sassy, driven and determined.


George Katzenberg (Tom Sizemore – Natural Born Killers, Black Hawk Down, Saving Private Ryan)
A senior figure at the US Department of Commerce, Katzenberg secures the funding to start Stormshield. It is never clear, however, whether he is involved because he believes in the project's possibilities or because he believes in its potential to advance his career. Sinister, manipulative and controlling, George looks after himself.


Dan Abrams (Chris Potter – Law And Order, Sex Traffic)
Dan is just what you would expect from a meteorologist. He was a professor of meteorology at Princeton University, becoming leader of Stormshield. He lives in New York and is married with two children. Dan is the leader of the pack, a visionary who is passionate about everything he does.

Lance Resnick (JR Bourne – 24, Stargate SG-1)
Lance is a mathematician who specialises in designing software that will predict the behaviour of complex, chaotic weather systems. He's also a maverick who isn't afraid to take risks.

Munish Loomba (Cas Anvar – N.C.I.S, The Unit, Medium)
Munish is a meteorologist. As a child in Bangladesh, he survived the Bhola Cyclone which killed both his parents. He has devoted his life to finding ways to combat hurricanes. Prior to his involvement in Stormshield, Munish worked with Dan Abrams at Princeton. Munish is committed to his work and needs to understand the power of nature's most destructive force.

Holly Zabrieski (Jana Carpenter – singer-songwriter with British folk band Piefinger)
A computer genius who specialises in data modelling, Holly is the designer and operator of TEMPEST, the 3-D holographic simulator that Stormshield use to analyse hurricanes.

Ralf Dewitt (Nicolas Wright)
Ralf is Sara Hughes's assistant in her fieldwork. Afraid of flying, Ralf co-ordinates Sara's research flights from the ground.

Episode One

Dan Abrams, Sara Hughes, Lance Resnick, Munish Loomba, Ralf Dewitt and Holly Zabrieski are all experts in various fields of hurricane research and meteorology. They are Stormshield – a team of scientists brought together to control the power of Superstorms.

After several months of research, in which several different theories are developed, the team are given clearance to seed a small hurricane with silver iodide – a technique first developed in the Sixties in a government-funded research project called Stormfury. Stormfury was halted after it failed to show any conclusive results, but the team hope that their more sophisticated monitoring equipment will provide them with the evidence they need to prove it works.

Sara heads up the experiment; her grandfather was an original Stormfury veteran. It's Sara's ambition to fly into the hurricane to personally oversee the seeding – but when she becomes ill, her assistant, Ralf, takes her place. However, just as it appears that the seeding has been successful, there is a dreadful accident...

The science

The characters are fictional but the scenarios, in terms of historical events and scientific experiments, are based on fact. Superstorm is based on two years of research and script development during which time the production team consulted with the world's leading weather experts and meteorologists – experts such as Kerry Emanuel at MIT, Dr Chris Landsea, a meteorologist with NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Hurricane Centre in Miami, and Dr Roelof Bruintjes and Dr Greg Holland from NCAR, the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.

Michael Mosley, executive producer on Superstorm, comments: "Every effort has been taken to ensure that Superstorm reflects current scientific thinking and debate. We have consulted the leading experts from around the globe to make sure the series is based on scientific fact.

"I believe that in a globally warmed future, weather modification will become a significant area of scientific research. Our current situation has been compared to what it was like living in the Thirties; times are uncertain and many people fear something very bad is coming. There are a few global warming sceptics but most scientists believe that whatever happens, we are entering a period of major climate change. There will be pressure not only to curb C02 but also to develop technical solutions to extreme weather conditions.

"In the Thirties, the idea that research on the atom would lead to a weapon was laughable. But driven by need, scientists were able to develop a working nuclear weapon in a very short space of time. That was the political imperative. Since Hurricane Katrina, administrations across the globe have had to take notice. New York, Shanghai and Tokyo are all at threat from severe weather. It's in their interests to finance weather modification research."

Ailsa Orr, series producer on Superstorm, says: "Scientific credibility was paramount – all the scenarios explored in the series are based on real events and experiments, or ideas our team of consultants believe will be viable in the future. The successful seeding of Hurricane Agatha in episode one is based on a computer simulation experiment conducted for the BBC by Dr Roelof Bruintjes at NCAR. Dr Bruintjes is the world's leading expert on cloud seeding. It's research such as this that puts forward a very strong argument in favour of weather modification as a defence against extreme weather."

Superstorm is set in the near future where global warming has led to warmer seas which, in turn, are fuelling ever fiercer storms. This will be a major problem in the UK, but a catastrophe for countries such as the US, Japan and China as well as some of the less developed nations. The Bhola Cyclone that hit Bangladesh in the late Seventies killed over 500,000 people.

The central premise in Superstorm is further justified by research conducted by hurricane expert Professor Greg Holland. Holland has looked at data from hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the Pacific and tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and was startled to discover that, "over the last 30 years, the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has nearly doubled. This is consistent with climate change because, as the oceans warm up, there is going to be more energy available for those hurricanes to develop. This means that hurricanes are going to be meaner, more intense and cause more damage."

In Superstorm, a team is assembled to try and do something about this. They discuss weather modification – possible ways to steer the hurricanes off shore. In the end they go for the only two practical possibilities: seeding the hurricane with silver iodide and distant perturbation.

The former was tried with inconclusive results in the Sixties with Operation Stormfury. The latter is a new idea from Professor Kerry Emanuel at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Distant perturbation is the idea that hurricanes can be steered harmlessly out to sea before they ever hit land by creating a weather system that will push the hurricane back out to sea. Professor Emanuel believes that there are no significant technological barriers to hurricane modification; something could be developed and tested for real on a hurricane within a decade if the relevant international agreements could be obtained. This is a potential stumbling block for the reasons laid out in Superstorm – who is to say that a hurricane that's deflected off Miami won't hit Cuba?

The underlying fear that the military might use Stormshield's research for more sinister purposes is based on what happened in the Sixties with Project Stormfury. Stormfury was a civilian project to see if seeding could be used to deflect hurricanes; their research was then used, without the scientists' knowledge, during the Vietnam War. A top secret programme, Project Popeye, was set up by the military to see if seeding could be used to create torrential rainfall and drown the enemy. The military also considered seeding clouds with radiological and biological agents and have them rain down on the enemy. Project Popeye led to many deaths and, when exposed, a treaty outlawed the use of weather as a weapon.

These are the central themes upon which Superstorm is based.

What is a hurricane?

The terms "hurricane" and "typhoon" are regionally specific names for a strong "tropical cyclone". A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters.

A hurricane is a large rotating storm centred on an area of very low pressure, with strong winds blowing at an average speed in excess of 72 miles per hour. The whole storm system may be five to six miles high and 300 to 400 miles wide. It moves forward like an immense spinning top, at speeds of up to 60 mph.

How do hurricanes form?

There are various trigger mechanisms required to transform frequent storms into rarer hurricanes. These trigger mechanisms depend on several conditions being "right" at the same time. The most influential factors are: a source of very warm, moist air – derived from tropical oceans with surface temperatures greater than 26°C; and a sufficient spin or twist from the rotating Earth – this is related to latitude.

As the warm sea heats the air above it, a current of very warm, moist air rises quickly, creating a centre of low pressure at the surface. Trade winds rush in towards this low pressure and the inward spiralling winds whirl upwards releasing heat and moisture before descending. The rotation of the Earth causes the rising column to twist, gradually taking on the form of a cylinder whirling around an eye of relatively still air, free from clouds. The rising air cools and produces towering cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds. Further aloft at six miles, the cloud tops are carried outwards to give thick layer clouds due to the outward-spiralling winds leaving the hurricane core.

How are hurricanes measured?

Hurricanes are measured on the Saffir-Simpson Scale:

Category Winds Effects
1 Strongest gusts less than 77mph Damage to some crops, trees and caravans.
2 Strongest gusts 77-106mph Minor house damage. Small craft may break moorings. Heavy crop damage.
3 Strongest gusts 106-140mph Some roof and structural damage. Power failure likely.
4 Strongest gusts 140-175mph Significant structural damage. Widespread power failure. Dangerous airborne debris.
5 Strongest gusts above 175mph Widespread damage.

Why are hurricanes named?

For hundreds of years, hurricanes in the West Indies were named after the particular Saint's day on which the hurricane happened. The Australian meteorologist Clement Wragge began giving women's names to tropical storms at the end of the 19th century. In 1953, however, the US National Weather Service began using female names for storms.

In 1979, both women's and men's names were used. One name for each letter of the alphabet is selected, except for Q, U, Y and Z. For Atlantic Ocean hurricanes, the names may be French, Spanish or English.

2007's North Atlantic hurricanes will be called:
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Top 10 fascinating facts and an "and finally"

The rate at which a hurricane produces fresh water is also about equal to the global human rate of fresh water consumption. So, if we could harness the hurricane, we could supply all our fresh water needs.
The most powerful hurricanes can have wind speeds of up to 190mph.
The deadliest storm in history is the 1970 Bangladesh (or Bhola) cyclone, estimated to have caused the deaths of over half a million people. This was primarily due to the storm surge impacting the low-lying deltas.
The costliest hurricane in US history is Katrina – estimated to have been responsible for $81.2b of damage.

A typical Atlantic hurricane puts out 20 trillion watts of power; about the same as the global electrical generation capacity. Therefore, if we could harness all of the wind energy of a single hurricane during its lifetime, we could power the globe's electrical needs.

The biggest storm surge in recorded history was from the Bathurst Bay Hurricane, also known as Tropical Cyclone Mahina, in Australia in 1899. It produced a surge of between 42-48ft. Fish and dolphins were reported to be found on top of 45ft-high cliffs.
The biggest hurricanes can be as much as 1,000 miles across – large enough to cover most of Britain.
The biggest storm in history is Typhoon Tip, which had gale force winds extending out to 675 miles in radius in the Northwest Pacific on 12 October 1979 – 1,350 miles across.
The smallest storm on record is Tropical Cyclone Tracy, which had gale force winds out to a 30-mile radius when it struck Darwin, Australia, on 24 December 1974 – ie, 60 miles across.
The word "hurricane" comes from Huracan, the god of big winds and evil spirits once worshipped by the Maya people of Central America. It means Centre of The Wind, Spirit of Mayhem.

And finally – good news for Michael Fish. The Great Storm of 1987 did not originate in the Tropics and was not, by any definition, a hurricane – but it was certainly exceptional.